The Dynamics of the India–US

Summary Points:

Strategic Triangle Dynamics:

Strategic triangles involve close, interdependent relationships between three nations, potentially cooperative, competitive, or hierarchical.
The India–US–China strategic triangle is pivotal due to its impact on regional and global order, intensified by the US's focus on the Indo-Pacific, China's military modernization, and India's strategic and economic outreach. Historical Evolution:

Early 2000s: Post-Cold War, relations among India, the US, and China were defined by a mix of competition and cooperation.
Post-9/11: Shifts occurred with the US enhancing ties with China for global security and with India over shared concerns regarding terrorism and China's rise.
Late 2010s: Relations were marked by cooperative efforts on global governance issues through platforms like BRICS and SCO, despite persistent bilateral tensions. Economic and Military Engagements:

Expansion of bilateral trade among the three nations while addressing friction points like trade practices and intellectual property rights.
India-US defense cooperation strengthened through agreements such as LEMOA, COMCASA, and joint military exercises like MALABAR. Contemporary Relations and Trends:

Galwan Valley incident in 2020 deteriorated India-China relations, leading to economic and military retaliatory measures from both sides.
US-China relations have become more confrontational under the Biden administration, with heightened tensions over trade, technology, and Taiwan.
India and the US have bolstered their strategic partnership, emphasizing Indo-Pacific security through the Quad alliance and new defense agreements. Future Scenarios for the Triangular Relationship:

Scenario 1: Possible collective development approach addressing global challenges like climate change and resource scarcity.
Scenario 2: US-China détente with continued India-China friction, influenced by unresolved issues post-Galwan and regional strategic competition.
Scenario 3: Sustained US-India alignment against China, driven by border disputes, maritime assertiveness, and technological restrictions.

Additional Information to Remember:

Global Impact: The dynamics within the India–US–China triangle significantly influence global economic trends, security frameworks, and geopolitical alliances.
Geo-economic Considerations: The strategic importance of economic initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by China, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) led by the US, illustrate the geo-economic strategies at play.
Military Modernization and Alliances: China's rapid military expansion and the strengthening of India-US defense ties underscore shifting military alliances and preparedness in the region.
Technological Frontiers: The US-China technology war and India's stance on digital sovereignty and cybersecurity reflect the critical role of technology in shaping the strategic landscape.
Multilateral Engagements: Participation and leadership in international organizations and multilateral groups highlight the trio's influence on global governance and collective security efforts.

Title : The Dynamics of the India–US–China Triad

Author : Mayuri Banerjee

Publication Date : 20 March 2024

The Dynamics of the India–US–China Triad