Myanmar: Three Years of Coup and Civil War

Summary Points:

Political Crisis and Military Coup:

• On 1 February 2021, Myanmar's military disputed the 2020 election results, claiming widespread fraud, and seized control from the NLD-led government, inciting mass protests and armed resistance across the nation. Emergence of the National Unity Government and Armed Resistance:

• Post-coup, the opposition formed the National Unity Government (NUG) and organized People's Defense Forces (PDFs) to combat the military regime, with significant parts of the country now under control by these opposition forces. Escalating Civil War and Humanitarian Crisis:

• The civil conflict has led to a major humanitarian crisis, with over 2.6 million internally displaced persons and extensive civilian casualties due to military actions and intensified offensives. The Military's Precarious Position:

• The junta’s position is weakened due to sustained attacks from ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People's Defense Forces, leading to significant territorial loss, desertions, and international isolation. Internal Dynamics and International Response:

• Despite internal defections and a decrease in morale within the military, the junta continues to resist international pressure, maintaining a defense-focused strategy and initiating measures such as mandatory military service to bolster its ranks. Challenges within Anti-Junta Forces:

• While there is a unified front against the military regime, varying visions for Myanmar's future among EAOs and the NUG pose challenges for post-conflict governance and power-sharing. Future Trajectory of Myanmar:

• The country faces an uncertain future with ongoing armed conflict, lack of clear international support for the opposition, and complex negotiations required for a transition towards a democratic federal state.

Additional Information to Remember:

• Impact of 2020 Election Dispute: The military's refusal to accept the NLD's electoral victory has plunged Myanmar into a state of chaos and violence, reversing years of democratic progress.

• Role of Ethnic Armed Organizations: EAOs have been pivotal in the resistance against the military, leveraging their territorial control and military capabilities, yet their long-term goals may differ from the pro-democracy movement.

• International Stance: Global reactions have ranged from condemnation and sanctions to a more cautious approach by neighboring countries, impacting Myanmar's economic and diplomatic relations.

• Humanitarian Impact: The conflict has exacerbated pre-existing challenges, leading to severe food shortages, healthcare collapse, and a surge in refugee outflows, particularly towards India and Thailand.

• Political Reformation Efforts: The NUG and other anti-junta forces are advocating for a new political framework that includes all ethnic groups and adheres to democratic principles, a significant departure from the 2008 constitution backed by the military.

Original Article and Credit

Title : Myanmar: Three Years of Coup and Civil War

Author : Mr Om Prakash Das

Publication Date : 05 March 2024

URL : Originally published by Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at Myanmar: Three Years of Coup and Civil War | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)