Iran Parliament and Assembly of Expert Elections: Hardliners on the Rise

Summary Points:

Iran's Political Landscape Transformation:

• Shift towards conservative dominance, sidelining moderates and reformists in the wake of failed Western outreach.

• New Assembly of Experts and Islamic Consultative Assembly elections reflect conservative consolidation. Election Outcomes and Trends:

• Over 25 million votes cast with a 41% turnout in the March 1, 2024 elections.

• Paydari (Front of Islamic Revolution Stability) and traditional conservatives dominate; moderates and reformists marginalized. Election Process and Oversight:

• The Majlis (290 members) and Assembly of Experts (88 members) election processes outlined.

• Significant vetting by the Guardian Council, influenced by the Supreme Leader, determining candidate eligibility. Rise of Hardliners and Generational Change:

• Hardliners capitalize on anti-regime sentiment and national security rhetoric.

• A younger generation of conservatives gains prominence, filling voids left by older political figures. Popular Participation and Election Rhetoric:

• Nationalist rhetoric employed to encourage voter participation amidst exclusion of reformists.

• Khamenei emphasizes elections as a demonstration of the republican system against external adversaries. Guardian Council's Role and Disqualifications:

• Continued trend of disqualifying moderate and reformist candidates, impacting election outcomes.

• Notable disqualifications include moderate-conservatives and individuals challenging the system's economic narratives. Hardline vs. Moderate Dynamics:

• Infighting within conservative camps; emergence of Paydari as a significant force.

• Decline in traditional conservative influence, marked by Paydari’s success and shifting voter allegiance. Assembly of Experts' Elections:

• Significance of elections for determining Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor.

• Dominance of conservatives, with notable figures like Rouhani and Larijani being barred or defeated. Iran's Managed Democracy and Future Implications:

• Iran’s shift towards a "managed democracy," similar to Russia, with controlled electoral outcomes.

• Conservative rise indicates Ayatollah Khamenei’s successor will likely be from conservative ranks, impacting future policy directions.

Additional Information to Remember:

• Impact of International Relations on Domestic Politics: Iran's strained relations with the West have influenced internal political dynamics, leading to a resurgence of conservative power.

• Electoral System and Democratic Processes: The role of the Guardian Council and the structure of electoral districts in Iran play pivotal roles in shaping the political landscape.

• Generational Shift in Leadership: The ongoing transition reflects a broader generational change within Iran's political leadership, affecting future governance and policy directions.

• Public Sentiment and Political Participation: Public unrest and demands for civil rights continue to challenge the political status quo, albeit with limited immediate impact on election outcomes.

• Conservative Consolidation and Policy Implications: The consolidation of conservative power could influence Iran's domestic and foreign policies, particularly concerning human rights, nuclear negotiations, and regional relations.

Original Article and Credit

Title : Iran Parliament and Assembly of Expert Elections: Hardliners on the Rise

Author : Dr Deepika Saraswat

Publication Date : 15 March 2024

URL : Originally published by Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (www.idsa.in) at Iran Parliament and Assembly of Expert Elections: Hardliners on the Rise | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)